I've collected a lot of data on resource prices over time, in two entirely passive games... IOW, I let the games run for 200 years without ever doing a single thing. Both were solo Northeast Financier games with no AI opponents.
These stats can be seen as baseline info and may or may not apply to "active" games - it's possible that resource selling may change the actual baselines for resources (the point that the price would drift back to, if you stopped doing anything with a resource). But in reviewing other games where I did use resources, I seem to see the same baselines there.
It's also entirely possible that different difficulty levels will change the price patterns. Also IIRC, the economics are easier on lower settings, which could mean resources provide more money. The values shown are for Financier level. Still, they probably follow very similar patterns. Different scenarios may well have their own distinct patterns, as well. Then again, maybe not... the Northeast scenario has Automobiles able to be a resource from day 1 (1830), although IRL they did not appear until ~1900.
On to the findings...
Resources have four distinct groupings (with one subset). We'll call these Resource Groups 0 to 3.
There are also two distinct pricing plateaus, which I'll call the Early and Late Price Plateaus.
Group 0 is mail and passengers. These two resources fall quickly in price early in the game, then slowly approach their final, lowest value. This early price drop can be seen as (prices in thousands):
_____Start __75% Price___ 50% Price __25% Price __Final Price
_____Price __Value/Year__ Value/Year __Value/Year _Value/Year
Mail __14 ____11 / 5 _______9 / 11 ______6 / 25_____4 / 46 (1876)
Pass__21 ____17 / 5 ______13 / 13______9 / 28_____6 / 65 (1895)
Thanks to Snoopy55 for showing me how to align numbers
So they've lost a fourth of their value as of the fifth year of the game (1835) and about half by about the 12th year, but take ~50 years to become fully devalued. It looks like an exponential decay function. (See appended chart.)
Note that the prices shown in the F5 charts (above) obviously do not relate to actual delivery price, if you watch. You typically get way more than e.g. 6k per full passenger train, even late in the game. My theory is that there are two components: the bonus for speed and distance, and then this fixed amount, shown above. In practice, it means that early mail and esp. passengers are very lucrative, and later the fixed amount is very little - but you can still get good money for the speed and distance bonus, once fast trains are available. Therefore, Group 0 can be profitable through the entire game. If you want, you can consider the F5 chart numbers (above) to be showing you the "prop" the developers give you so you can get off to a good start.
Group 1 is raw resources. All five of them drop ~15% in the first two years of the game, hold this price ~40 years (the Early Plateau), and then rise slowly to their Late Plateau (year 65 or 67). This Late value is 25% more than the Early value, and is held for the rest of the game. Group 1 resources have two distinct sets:
1A is Grain and Wood. Both are entirely indistinguishable on the graphs: Both start at 16, quickly drop to and hold 13 or 14 (Early Plateau), then rise to 17 (Late Plateau; +24% vs. Early, but only +6% vs. Start Price).
1B is Coal, Livestock, and Oil. Again, these are indistinguishable: Start at 20, quickly fall to 17, then later slowly rise to, and hold, 21 (+24%, but only +5% vs. Start).
Group 1 is the only group that has an Early Plateau. Group 0 just drops (and eventually holds); Groups 2 and 3 hold their Start Price until they rise at the Late Plateau.
Group 2 is first-pass processed groups.
Food and Paper are indistinguishable: They start at 24, hold this for 41 years and slowly rise until the 72nd year (Late Plateau, 1902), where they hold price 30 (+25%) until the end of the game.
The other two in Group 2 have similar patterns but different prices: Steel starts at 30, then Late Plateaus at 37 (+23%). Manufactured Goods start at 32, then Late Plateuas at 40 (+25%).
Group 3 is the Auto. Starts at 50, Late Plateau of 62 (+24%).
Charts of how prices look for the groups are shown below. (Remember that this is for totally passive games!) I tried to find charts free of spikes due to Newspaper Announcements, but wasn't always able to.
***
Price Fluctuations a.k.a. Newspaper Announcements:
These data were also taken from the same two totally passive games. Your mileage may very well differ:
Games have approx. 7 spikes up and 7 down, per game. Down spikes are usually much milder than up spikes:
The average up spike lasted 8.4 years, for an average upswing of 29% of value, for the years it was elevated from baseline. This equates to a total upswing (average percent times years, a measure of total impact) of +257%. The max up spike was up an average of 76% for 10 years (total upswing +758%).
The average down spike lasted 4.7 years, for an average downswing of 15.7% (total downswing -83%). The worst down spike was -24% for 8 years (total downswing -192%). Some downswings were so small they were hardly noticeable; this was never true for upswings.
Comparing the two average total swings, downswings have only a third of the impact of upswings (83/257=32%). In terms of gameplay, this probably translates to: "ignore down spikes, but try to cash in on upswings, if you can".
If you're trying to work with price fluctuations - in case you haven't noticed, the little Resource Finder (above the mini map) displays resource prices in "real time". This may help you keep an eye on spikes.
***
I'm not sure how useful this particular batch of information is to anyone (laugh), but I plan to do more analysis. This baseline info will be a foundation for it.
Perhaps one interesting observation is how prices get propped up starting around 1880, plateauing around 1900... maybe the developers are compensating for how Group 0 is down by this point.
Baseline economic info for Railroads
Baseline economic info for Railroads
- Attachments
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- Examples of how various resource types behave over time, in a passive game (no resource trading whatsoever). Ignore spikes due to announcements.
- RREs-All.png (61.52 KiB) Viewed 5602 times
Last edited by RedKnight on Wed Dec 13, 2006 9:37 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Captain Button
- Posts: 2
- Joined: Fri Dec 15, 2006 4:37 am
Thank you for the research.
I have seen prices change locally in the short term, while unloading a train. A train comes in with a 8 car freight cargo, and the first two cars pays $16,000 each, the next two pay $15,000, the next two $14,000, and thge last two $$13,000. (Or something like that, I'm working from memory here.)
I have seen prices change locally in the short term, while unloading a train. A train comes in with a 8 car freight cargo, and the first two cars pays $16,000 each, the next two pay $15,000, the next two $14,000, and thge last two $$13,000. (Or something like that, I'm working from memory here.)
Right Captain, if you look at your graphs (F5), you'll see them varying a lot, for any resource you sell.
Because prices for stuff besides Passengers and Mail do not seem to be subject to speed or distance bonuses, I'm pretty sure what you're seeing is the fact that, as you are delivering things, you are supplying a demand, thus driving down its price, as of that point in time. (What better time to reflect it than as of the moment it's sold?) Your F5 graphs will also reflect this... each time they jag downward, was when another trainload got sold. Then they drift back upward (as demand goes unsupplied a little while) until another trainload is sold.
That's the theory. Also in theory if you quit dealing in a particular resource, it would eventually rise back up to the baselines I've shown above. But in a real (non-test) game you wouldn't do that - the resource would be going to waste.
None of these comments include price spikes due to newspaper announcements. That's a whole nother thing.
An important question is whether supply and demand are treated globally, or locally? IOW, can you just sell your particular resource anywhere you want and get the same price (a global supply and demand), or will a particular city pay more for something it's never gotten? I'm pretty sure it uses a global model. Which is good, because it's simpler (and because routing trains all over can be a hassle).
Another question is, to what extent can you "over supply" something, so that you're approaching diminishing returns, and it's not hardly worth it. I think that this is more a question of how efficient your railroad is... if no trains are blocking each other, it's always worth it. But if you get so many trains / so disorganized that the trains snarl each other, you might actually lose money by opening all the resources that you can. It would probably have to be one helluva mess to do that, though.
One thing is clear... try to spread your resources around. For example, don't turn all your Wood into Manufactured Goods... make at least one Wood become Paper, instead. That way, you help avoid over-supplying Goods and instead make something that may be less, or even totally, under supplied, with its price still riding high.
Because prices for stuff besides Passengers and Mail do not seem to be subject to speed or distance bonuses, I'm pretty sure what you're seeing is the fact that, as you are delivering things, you are supplying a demand, thus driving down its price, as of that point in time. (What better time to reflect it than as of the moment it's sold?) Your F5 graphs will also reflect this... each time they jag downward, was when another trainload got sold. Then they drift back upward (as demand goes unsupplied a little while) until another trainload is sold.
That's the theory. Also in theory if you quit dealing in a particular resource, it would eventually rise back up to the baselines I've shown above. But in a real (non-test) game you wouldn't do that - the resource would be going to waste.
None of these comments include price spikes due to newspaper announcements. That's a whole nother thing.
An important question is whether supply and demand are treated globally, or locally? IOW, can you just sell your particular resource anywhere you want and get the same price (a global supply and demand), or will a particular city pay more for something it's never gotten? I'm pretty sure it uses a global model. Which is good, because it's simpler (and because routing trains all over can be a hassle).
Another question is, to what extent can you "over supply" something, so that you're approaching diminishing returns, and it's not hardly worth it. I think that this is more a question of how efficient your railroad is... if no trains are blocking each other, it's always worth it. But if you get so many trains / so disorganized that the trains snarl each other, you might actually lose money by opening all the resources that you can. It would probably have to be one helluva mess to do that, though.
One thing is clear... try to spread your resources around. For example, don't turn all your Wood into Manufactured Goods... make at least one Wood become Paper, instead. That way, you help avoid over-supplying Goods and instead make something that may be less, or even totally, under supplied, with its price still riding high.